Milford Mill, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS61 KLWX 210710
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of low pressure will move across the region
today into Thursday, then move offshore at the end of the week.
A weak area of high pressure approaches the region by the
weekend. Another frontal system across the southern U.S. may
impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing showers across the area as of 300 am will continue to
move off to the northeast over the next couple hours. Nothing
heavy by any means, more so light wetting rains. Attention then
turns to a decaying MCS across West Virginia and southwest
Virginia. This will bring rain to the area in the predawn and
near the metros by daybreak into the morning rush. Expecting
some embedded pockets of more moderate intensity rain unfold as
mesoscale impulses aloft track though from a larger scale
trough.

Flood Watches remain in effect across far western Maryland
(Garrett and Allegany), while extending down into Mineral and
western Grant counties. These continue through late tonight.
This area is of greatest concern for hydrologic issues given the
excessive rains of last week. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall in this area where the stationary front
looks to stall with easterly flow east of the front running into
westerly flow west of the front. Additionally, also given past
history over the northern Blue Ridge Mountains and adjacent
easterly upslope counties, a Flood Watch is in effect for this
area until 11 PM tonight. However, the signal is much stronger
for heavier rainfall across the former watch area where 2 to 3
inches of rain are possible.

A more defined upper low/trough which is set to track from the
Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic on this afternoon/evening.
Increasing lift with this trough coupled with anomalous moisture
and local orographic should all play a role in locally heavier
rainfall in the northwest tier of the flood watch.

For the rest of the forecast area, a soaking rain overspreads
the region which will hopefully alleviate the ongoing drought
issues. With strong high pressure to the north and a wavy
frontal zone over the Carolinas, the region remains wedged in
within a CAD setup. As a result, a very stable profile sets up
which should mitigate overall thunderstorm chances. As expected,
SPC has removed the Marginal Risk of severe weather from the
forecast area due to the CAD signature and no real instability
making it into the area. Will have to keep an eye west of the
Allegheny Front in case anything gets going to the west of the
mountains.

Well below average temps today with highs in the upper 50s to
60s (slightly cooler in the mountains). This comes with thick
low clouds and east-southeasterly gusts up to 20 to 25 mph,
especially east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Rain continues
off and on into the overnight hours which will favor a low
diurnal temperature range. For tonight, expect lows in the
mid/upper 40s in the mountains to 50s elsewhere. As mentioned,
there may be some breaks in the action as focus shifts toward a
developing wave of low pressure near the Virginia Tidewater
region. This would support some dry slot over the area as the
energy transfer unfolds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the upstream upper low wobbles eastward, the associated
embedded shortwaves will pass overhead on Thu. Additional rain
showers or even a period of steadier rain is possible as a lobe
of vorticity rotates through the area. Better forcing is north
into PA, but regardless more rain is likely across the area. The
biggest difference between the two days will be much less
moisture availability as precipitable water values drop to below
an inch. As a result, total rainfall amounts should be lower,
generally averaging between 0.20 to 0.40 inches. The atmosphere
should be more unstable as the CAD wedge will have eroded. Thus,
expect isolated thunderstorms to pop up during Thu afternoon to
evening, especially in areas that can see some sunshine.
Forecast highs will mainly be in the 60s, but expect 50s in the
mountains and low/mid 70s along and east of I-95. This also
comes with a shift in winds given low pressure to the east.
Mainly west to northwesterly winds are expected with gusts up to
20 to 25 mph, locally up to 35 mph along the Allegheny ridges.

Conditions gradually dry out through the night with even some
breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast lows drop into the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Given the position of the ULL Fri, a continued cool NW flow will
continue into the area. The majority of the day Fri is expected
to stay dry, but an uptick in both cloud cover and areal
coverage of showers will occur during the afternoon in response
to daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Below normal
temperatures (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s to low 50s) on
Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to reside near New England into Saturday
while high pressure builds in from the northwest. However, there may
still be enough moisture in northwest flow for a stray shower or
sprinkle, mainly closer to the Pennsylvania border. Northwest winds
will remain gusty. The low will pull away Sunday, but the high will
never fully move into the region, as an upper trough in the Plains
causes a warm front to start lifting north toward the area. The
frontal zone will be nearly parallel to westerly flow aloft
stretching from the mid Mississippi Valley toward the Mid Atlantic.
This will provide the opportunity for upper level ripples to combine
with moisture overrunning the frontal zone to produce showers as
early as Sunday. An upper level low may eventually form early next
week as a surface low moves toward the area. This would likely draw
additional moisture into the area (and the highest rain chances of
the stretch) Monday into Tuesday. The low may not clear the area
until the middle of next week. It`s too early to speculate on
rainfall amounts with lots of model spread at this point in how the
system will evolve.

While temperatures may tick up slightly by Monday and Tuesday,
overall below normal temperatures will continue through the long
term period. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ceilings are expected to drop through MVFR to IFR by daybreak
and may remain that way throughout Wednesday. Models continue to
hint at a break of rain during the middle of the day/early
afternoon which may allow conditions to improve to MVFR. At
times, visibility could also begin to near IFR within the
moderate to heavy downpours. This also comes with increase east-
southeasterly winds which will begin gusting to around 20 knots
by late Wednesday morning. These winds also make sustained IFR
conditions uncertain, especially the further east towards DCA
and BWI. Anywho, such wind fields persist through the afternoon
to early evening hours. Another wave of moderate rain will
likely arrive toward this evening. Restrictions hold in place
for all terminals into tonight, some potentially falling to
LIFR at times.

As low pressure forms to the east near the Virginia coastline,
winds shift over to west-northwesterly on Thu. Additional
restrictions are possible as well as more showers pass through
the area. However, do expect more breaks in the action, but with
isolated thunderstorms possible during Thu afternoon to
evening. Continued west-northwesterly winds should gradually dry
things out into Thu night. Depending on how much low-level
moisture is left, some return to VFR conditions is possible.

VFR conditions will prevail Fri into Sat with northwesterly
wind gusts up to 20-25 kt. Showers and sub-VFR conditions could
move back into the area as early as Sunday ahead of a warm
front, but confidence is currently low.

&&

.MARINE...
East-southeast winds will steadily increase through daybreak.
All waters should have gusts of 20-25 kt today. There is a low
chance of a few gusts near gale force on the middle bay, but
uncertainties wrt the inversion and how much wind punches
through exist. Winds will decrease tonight as low pressure moves
up the coast, with advisories ending.

As low pressure passes by to the east, winds shift to mainly
west-northwesterly on Thu. These come with continued shower
chances, but as not continuous and concentrated as Wednesday.
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening hours. Outside of any such storm, winds should
stay below advisory levels.

Small Craft Advisory conditions remain possible Fri into Sat in
continued northwest flow. Low pressure to the northeast finally
pulls away Sunday, so winds are expected to be lighter.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of strong high pressure to the north over
Ontario with low pressure passing through to the south will
shift winds to easterly while strengthening in time today.
Through Thu morning, there will be an increasing threat for
Minor tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations. Have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Annapolis for the next two
high tides. If anomalies continue to spike, there is a low end
chance for moderate tidal flooding. Water levels eventually drop
off on Thu as winds shift to northwesterly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for MDZ014.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ038>040-507.
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ501-503-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...BRO/CPB
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CPB